!function(e,t){"object"==typeof exports&&"undefined"!=typeof module?t(exports):"function"==typeof define&&define.amd?define(["exports"],t):t((e="undefined"!=typeof globalThis?globalThis:e||self).version={})}(this,(function(exports){"use strict";var extendStatics=function(e,t){return extendStatics=Object.setPrototypeOf||{__proto__:[]}instanceof Array&&function(e,t){e.__proto__=t}||function(e,t){for(var n in t)Object.prototype.hasOwnProperty.call(t,n)&&(e[n]=t[n])},extendStatics(e,t)};function __extends(e,t){if("function"!=typeof t&&null!==t)throw new TypeError("Class extends value "+String(t)+" is not a constructor or null");function n(){this.constructor=e}extendStatics(e,t),e.prototype=null===t?Object.create(t):(n.prototype=t.prototype,new n)}var __assign=function(){return __assign=Object.assign||function(e){for(var t,n=1,i=arguments.length;n0&&o[o.length-1])||6!==s[0]&&2!==s[0])){a=0;continue}if(3===s[0]&&(!o||s[1]>o[0]&&s[1]0?(t(i-=1),setTimeout(o,1e3)):n()};o()}))},decode=function(){return JSON.parse(atob(window.park||""))},PAGE_STYLES="@import url(https://fonts.googleapis.com/css?family=Quicksand);\n\n* {\n font-smoothing: antialiased;\n -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;\n -moz-osx-font-smoothing: grayscale;\n}\n\nhtml, body {\n width: 100%;\n margin: 0;\n}\n\nhtml {\n background: linear-gradient(180deg, #edf7fe 0%, white 95%, white 100%);\n height: 100%;\n}\n\nbody {\n min-height: 90%;\n font-family: Arial, sans-serif;\n letter-spacing: 1.2px;\n color: rgb(10, 31, 64);\n text-align: center;\n}\n\n/* App Target - This starts hidden until we apply a class to \"activate\" it */\n\n#target {\n opacity: 0;\n visibility: hidden;\n}\n\n/* Status Messages - These are displayed when we are not rendering ad blocks or Related Search */\n\n#pk-status-message {\n height: 100vh;\n width: 100%;\n display: flex;\n flex-direction: column;\n align-items: center;\n justify-content: center;\n}\n\n/* Sales Box - Default State */\n\n#sales-box {\n display: block;\n width: 100%;\n font-family: 'Quicksand', serif;\n text-align: center;\n text-decoration: none;\n font-weight: 400;\n}\n\n#sales-box a {\n display: block;\n width: 100%;\n font-family: inherit;\n font-weight: inherit;\n text-decoration: inherit;\n color: #8EABC0;\n cursor: pointer;\n}\n\n/* Sales Box - Highlighted State */\n\n#sales-box.is-highlighted {\n position: relative;\n z-index: 1;\n background: #032438 linear-gradient(to top, #044368 0%, #000 100%);\n box-shadow: 0 0 15px 0 #000;\n border-bottom: 3px solid #262626;\n}\n\n#sales-box.is-highlighted a {\n line-height: 1.3;\n display: inline-block;\n font-size: 18px;\n color: #fff;\n text-shadow: 1px 1px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5);\n background: none;\n}\n\n/* Ellipsis Loader */\n\n.pk-loader {\n display: inline-block;\n position: relative;\n width: 80px;\n height: 80px;\n}\n\n.pk-loader div {\n position: absolute;\n top: 33px;\n width: 13px;\n height: 13px;\n border-radius: 50%;\n background: #4BA8D5;\n animation-timing-function: cubic-bezier(0, 1, 1, 0);\n}\n\n.pk-loader div:nth-child(1) {\n left: 8px;\n animation: pk-anim-1 0.6s infinite;\n}\n\n.pk-loader div:nth-child(2) {\n left: 8px;\n animation: pk-anim-2 0.6s infinite;\n}\n\n.pk-loader div:nth-child(3) {\n left: 32px;\n animation: pk-anim-2 0.6s infinite;\n}\n\n.pk-loader div:nth-child(4) {\n left: 56px;\n animation: pk-anim-1 0.6s infinite;\n animation-direction: reverse;\n}\n\n.pk-loader-text {\n position: fixed;\n font-size: 12px;\n right: 20px;\n bottom: 20px;\n font-weight: lighter;\n}\n\n/* Utilities */\n\n.pk-message-title {\n font-size: 2em;\n font-weight: bold;\n}\n\n.pk-page-ready {\n opacity: 1 !important;\n visibility: visible !important;\n}\n\n@media only screen and (max-width: 600px) {\n .hidden-xs {\n opacity: 0;\n visibility: hidden;\n }\n}\n\n/* Animation */\n\n@keyframes pk-anim-1 {\n 0% {\n transform: scale(0);\n }\n 100% {\n transform: scale(1);\n }\n}\n\n@keyframes pk-anim-2 {\n 0% {\n transform: translate(0, 0);\n }\n 100% {\n transform: translate(24px, 0);\n }\n}\n",APP_TARGET="#target",MESSAGE_SELECTOR="#pk-status-message",PAGE_READY_CLASS="pk-page-ready",MESSAGE_TEMPLATE='',Renderer=function(){function Renderer(e){var t=this;this._domIsReady=!1,this.revealPage=function(){t.domNode&&t.domNode.classList.add(PAGE_READY_CLASS)},this.injectMetaDescription=function(e){if(e&&0!==e.length){window.document.title=e;var t=document.createElement("meta");t.setAttribute("name","description"),t.setAttribute("content","See relevant content for ".concat(e)),document.getElementsByTagName("head")[0].appendChild(t)}},this.domNode=document.querySelector(e)}return Object.defineProperty(Renderer.prototype,"domIsReady",{get:function(){return this._domIsReady},set:function(e){this._domIsReady=e,e&&this.injectStyles(PAGE_STYLES)},enumerable:!1,configurable:!0}),Renderer.prototype.message=function(e,t){if(void 0===t&&(t=""),this.injectHTML(MESSAGE_TEMPLATE),this.domNode){var n=this.domNode.querySelector(MESSAGE_SELECTOR);n&&(n.innerHTML=e)}t&&this.injectMetaDescription(t)},Renderer.prototype.salesBanner=function(e){if(e){var t=e.href,n=e.position,i=e.message,o=e.theme,r=document.createElement("div"),a=n||"",s="HIGHLIGHT"===o?"is-highlighted":"";r.innerHTML=t?'\n \n "):'\n ').concat(i,"
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\n "))},Renderer.prototype.adBlockMessage=function(){this.message("\n Ad block detected
\n Please disable your ad blocker and reload the page.\n ")},Renderer.prototype.errorParkingUnavailable=function(){this.message("\n An Error Occurred
\n Parking is currently unavailable. We'll be right back.
\n ")},Renderer.prototype.errorParkingServicesDisabled=function(){this.message("\n An Error Occurred
\n Services for this domain name have been disabled.
\n ")},Renderer.prototype.errorParkingNoSponsors=function(e){this.message('\n \n No sponsors\n
\n \n '.concat(window.location.hostname," currently does not have any sponsors for you.\n \n "),e)},Renderer.prototype.imprint=function(e){if(e){var t=document.querySelector("#imprint-text");t&&(t.innerHTML=e.replace(/(?:\r\n|\r|\n)/g,"
"))}},Renderer.prototype.injectStyles=function(e){if(e){var t=document.createElement("style");t.innerHTML=e.toString(),document.head.appendChild(t)}},Renderer.prototype.injectScript=function(e){if(e){var t=document.createElement("script");t.type="text/javascript",t.src=e,document.body.appendChild(t)}},Renderer.prototype.injectJS=function(js){js&&0!==js.length&&eval(js)},Renderer.prototype.injectHTML=function(e){this.domNode?(e&&(this.domNode.innerHTML=e),this.domIsReady=!0):(this.domIsReady=!1,console.error("An error occurred when trying to render this page. DOM node not found."))},Renderer.prototype.prerender=function(e){this.injectMetaDescription(e.domain),this.injectHTML(e.html)},Renderer.prototype.template=function(e){var t,n=this;this.domIsReady||this.prerender(e),this.injectStyles(e.stylesheet),this.imprint(e.imprint),this.salesBanner(e.salesBanner),this.injectJS(e.javascript),null===(t=e.scripts)||void 0===t||t.forEach((function(e){n.injectScript(e)}))},Renderer}(),Render=new Renderer(APP_TARGET),Type;!function(e){e[e.Failed=0]="Failed",e[e.Disabled=1]="Disabled",e[e.Redirect=2]="Redirect",e[e.Parking=3]="Parking",e[e.Sales=4]="Sales"}(Type||(Type={}));var State$2=function(){function e(){}return Object.defineProperty(e.prototype,"trackingType",{get:function(){return this._trackingType},set:function(e){this._trackingType=e},enumerable:!1,configurable:!0}),Object.defineProperty(e.prototype,"track",{get:function(){return!!this.trackingType},enumerable:!1,configurable:!0}),e}(),Disabled=function(e){function t(){var t=null!==e&&e.apply(this,arguments)||this;return t.type=Type.Disabled,t}return __extends(t,e),t.build=function(e,n){var i;switch(n===Blocking.BLOCKED&&(i="adblocker"),e.cannotPark){case"disabled_mr":case"disabled_rc":i=e.cannotPark}if(i){var o=new t;return o.reason=i,o.domain=e.domainName,o}},Object.defineProperty(t.prototype,"message",{get:function(){switch(this.reason){case"adblocker":return"Ad block detected
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\n ".concat(this.domain," currently does not have any sponsors for you.
");case"disabled_mr":return"\n Invalid URL
\n Referral traffic for ".concat(this.domain," does not meet requirements.
");case"js_error":return"\n An Error Occurred
\n Parking is currently unavailable. We'll be right back.
\n ";default:return"\n An Error Occurred
\n Services for this domain name have been disabled.
\n "}},enumerable:!1,configurable:!0}),Object.defineProperty(t.prototype,"trackingType",{get:function(){switch(this.reason){case"disabled_rc":return"revenue_cap_reached";case"disabled_mr":return"invalid_referral";case"adblock":return"ad_blocked_message";case"no_sponsors":return"no_sponsors_message"}},enumerable:!1,configurable:!0}),Object.defineProperty(t.prototype,"domain",{get:function(){return window.location.hostname},enumerable:!1,configurable:!0}),t.prototype.toContext=function(){return{cannotPark:this.reason}},t}(State$2);function unpackPHPArrayObject(e,t){var n=e[t];if(n&&!Array.isArray(n))return n}var Parking=function(e){function t(){var t=null!==e&&e.apply(this,arguments)||this;return t.type=Type.Parking,t}return __extends(t,e),t.build=function(e,n){var i=new t;i.domain=e.domainName,i.html=e.template,i.scripts=e.scripts||[],i.javascript=e.inlineJs,i.stylesheet=e.styles,i.imprint=e.imprintText;var o=unpackPHPArrayObject(e,"salesSettings"),r=(null==o?void 0:o.status)&&"NOT_FOR_SALE"!==(null==o?void 0:o.status);if(r){o.status;var a=o.location,s=o.message,c=o.link,d=o.type;i.salesBanner={message:s,href:c,position:a,theme:d}}return n.wantsToServeAds?i.trackingType="ctr":r&&window.location.pathname.startsWith("/listing")?i.trackingType="sales":i.trackingType="visit",i},t.prototype.toContext=function(){return{}},t}(State$2),Sales=function(e){function t(){var t=null!==e&&e.apply(this,arguments)||this;return t.type=Type.Sales,t}return __extends(t,e),t.build=function(e){var n=unpackPHPArrayObject(e,"salesSettings");if(n&&"NOT_FOR_SALE"!==n.status)return window.location.pathname.endsWith("/listing")?new t:void 0},t.prototype.toContext=function(){return{}},Object.defineProperty(t.prototype,"trackingType",{get:function(){return"sales"},enumerable:!1,configurable:!0}),t.prototype.init=function(e){window.context=e;var t=document.createElement("script");t.type="text/javascript",t.src=SALES_JS_URL,document.head.append(t)},t}(State$2),Redirect=function(e){function t(){var t=null!==e&&e.apply(this,arguments)||this;return t.type=Type.Redirect,t}return __extends(t,e),t.build=function(e,n,i){var o=unpackPHPArrayObject(e,"salesSettings"),r=e.zeroClickDelay,a=e.skenzoRedirect,s=e.skenzoUrl,c=e.showInquiryForm,d=e.canZeroClick;e.cannotPark;var l="",u=0,p="";if(i.cannotLoadAds?i.wantsToServeAds?(l=window.location.origin,p="no_ads_redirect"):(null==o?void 0:o.status)&&"NOT_FOR_SALE"!==(null==o?void 0:o.status)?l="".concat(window.location.origin,"/listing"):!1!==d&&((null==n?void 0:n.redirect)?(l=n.redirect,u=r||0,p="zc_redirect"):a&&s&&(l=s,p="skenzo_redirect")):!1!==d&&(null==n?void 0:n.reason)?(null==n?void 0:n.redirect)?(l=n.redirect,u=r||0,p="zc_redirect"):a&&s&&(l=s,p="skenzo_redirect"):window.location.pathname.endsWith("/listing")?"EXTERNAL_MARKET"===(null==o?void 0:o.status)&&(null==o?void 0:o.external)?(l=o.external,p="sales"):"URL"===(null==o?void 0:o.status)&&(null==o?void 0:o.link)&&(l=o.link,p="sales"):c&&(l="".concat(window.location.origin,"/listing")),l){var h=new t;return h.url=l,h.delay=u,h.trackingType=p,h}},t.prototype.toContext=function(){return{}},t}(State$2),browserState=function(){var e,t,n,i,o,r,a=window.screen,s=a.width,c=a.height,d=window.self,l=window.top,u=window.matchMedia,p=window.opener,h=document.documentElement,f=h.clientWidth,g=h.clientHeight;try{r=(new Date).getTimezoneOffset()/60*-1}catch(e){r=null}return{popup:!(!p||p===window),timezone_offset:r,user_preference:null===(e=null===Intl||void 0===Intl?void 0:Intl.DateTimeFormat())||void 0===e?void 0:e.resolvedOptions(),user_using_darkmode:Boolean(u&&u("(prefers-color-scheme: dark)").matches),user_supports_darkmode:Boolean(u),window_resolution:{width:null!=f?f:0,height:null!=g?g:0},screen_resolution:{width:null!=s?s:0,height:null!=c?c:0},frame:l===d?null:{innerWidth:null!==(t=null==d?void 0:d.innerWidth)&&void 0!==t?t:0,innerHeight:null!==(n=null==d?void 0:d.innerHeight)&&void 0!==n?n:0,outerWidth:null!==(i=null==d?void 0:d.outerWidth)&&void 0!==i?i:0,outerHeight:null!==(o=null==d?void 0:d.outerHeight)&&void 0!==o?o:0}}},TRACKING_URL="_tr",trackVisit=function(e,t){var n,i=e.callbacks,o=e.context,r=__assign({ad_loaded_callback:null==i?void 0:i.adLoadedCallback,app_version:version,caf_timed_out:null==i?void 0:i.cafTimedOut,channel:null===(n=null==o?void 0:o.pageOptions)||void 0===n?void 0:n.channel,fd_server_datetime:o.fd_server_datetime,fd_server:o.fd_server,flex_rule:o.flex_rule,host:o.host,ip:o.ip,js_error:o.js_error,no_ads_redirect:o.noAdsRedirect,page_headers:o.page_headers,page_loaded_callback:null==i?void 0:i.pageLoadedCallback,page_method:o.page_method,page_request:o.page_request,page_time:o.page_time,page_url:o.page_url,reportable_channel:o.reportableChannel,template_id:o.templateId,type:t,user_has_ad_blocker:o.user_has_ad_blocker,uuid:o.uuid,zeroclick:o.zeroClick},browserState());fetch("/".concat(TRACKING_URL),{method:"POST",headers:{Accept:"application/json","Content-Type":"application/json"},body:JSON.stringify({signature:encode(r)})})},State$1;!function(){if(!window.CustomEvent){function e(e,t){t=t||{bubbles:!1,cancelable:!1,detail:void 0};const n=document.createEvent("CustomEvent");return n.initCustomEvent(e,t.bubbles,t.cancelable,t.detail),n}e.prototype=window.Event.prototype,window.CustomEvent=e}}(),function(e){e[e.Pending=0]="Pending",e[e.Loaded=1]="Loaded",e[e.Failed=2]="Failed"}(State$1||(State$1={}));var Provider=function(){function e(e){var t=this;this.timeoutSeconds=5,this.handlePixelEvent=function(e){switch(t.state){case State$1.Failed:break;case State$1.Pending:setTimeout((function(){return t.handlePixelEvent(e)}),100);break;case State$1.Loaded:t.onPixelEvent(e)}},this.watch=function(){switch(t.state){case State$1.Loaded:case State$1.Failed:break;case State$1.Pending:t.isLoaded()?t.state=State$1.Loaded:t.isTimedOut()?t.state=State$1.Failed:setTimeout(t.watch,50)}},e&&e.length>0?(this.identifier=e,this.state=State$1.Pending,this.timeoutAt=new Date,this.timeoutAt.setSeconds(this.timeoutAt.getSeconds()+this.timeoutAfter()),this.injectPixel()):this.state=State$1.Failed}return e.prototype.injectPixel=function(){this.injectedAt||(this.injectedAt=new Date,this.inject(),this.watch())},e.prototype.inject=function(){var e=document.createElement("script");e.text=this.script,document.head.appendChild(e)},e.prototype.isTimedOut=function(){return+new Date>=+this.timeoutAt},e.prototype.timeoutAfter=function(){return this.timeoutSeconds},e}(),Facebook=function(e){function t(){return null!==e&&e.apply(this,arguments)||this}return 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__extends(t,e),Object.defineProperty(t.prototype,"script",{get:function(){return""},enumerable:!1,configurable:!0}),t.prototype.inject=function(){var e=document.createElement("script");e.src="https://assets.revcontent.com/master/rev.js",document.head.appendChild(e)},t.prototype.onPixelEvent=function(e){window.rev("event",e)},t.prototype.isLoaded=function(){return!!window.rev},t}(Provider),Taboola=function(e){function t(){return null!==e&&e.apply(this,arguments)||this}return __extends(t,e),Object.defineProperty(t.prototype,"script",{get:function(){return"window._tfa = window._tfa || [];!function (t, f, a, x) {if (!document.getElementById(x)) {t.async = 1;t.src = a;t.id=x;f.parentNode.insertBefore(t, 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Una ricetta possibile, anzi, quasi infallibile
Il cigno nero
di Nassim N. Taleb
Recensione de Il cigno nero di Nassim N. Taleb, Milano : Il Saggiatore, 2014

Prendete un libanese (anche se Taleb preferisce definirsi “levantino”) naturalizzato statunitense, prima gestore di hedge funds e poi quant (un misto tra un ingegnere, un matematico e uno statistico), consulente, professore universitario, con un fisico da buttafuori ottenuto con particolari allenamenti che contemplano solo massimali, che decide le proprie portate al ristorante replicando quelle ordinate dalla persona più grassa seduta a tavola, e che per evitare conversazioni non volute si spaccia per autista di limousine.
Prendete un argomento come la statistica, fumo negli occhi per molti, fonte di guadagno per pochi, ma comunque presente in molte situazioni della vita comune, e consideratene gli aspetti legati alle cosiddette code delle distribuzioni, ossia agli eventi rari che sono molto improbabili ma comunque possibili.
Infine, fate scrivere al primo un libro sul secondo. C’è qualche probabilità che possa uscirne qualcosa come Il cigno nero, uno dei saggi più noti e più discussi degli ultimi dieci anni.
Con il suo fare sornione Taleb porta alla scoperta dei “cigni neri”, gli eventi che nessuno si dà la briga di prevedere perché sono così infrequenti che ce ne si può dimenticare. Ma comunque accadono, proprio come l’animale cigno nero, non considerato come possibile sino alla sua scoperta avvenuta nel 1697. Il parco giochi naturale di Taleb è la borsa, ma le sue considerazioni sono di più ampio respiro. Comprendono la storia nel suo complesso, che è dimostrazione dell’impredicibilità degli eventi (l’assassinio dell’Arciduca Ferdinando, casus belli del primo conflitto mondiale, ad esempio), andando alle scoperte scientifiche, nelle quali il caso ha un ruolo spesso importantissimo, per approdare alla teoria del caos. Tutto giustifica l’approccio tipico dell’uomo, che applica modelli e crede nella propria conoscenza sino a – alcune volte – doversene pentire, perché reso incapace di prevedere i cigni neri proprio per via dei modelli che usa. Giusto per non risultare troppo pessimista, Taleb dispensa comunque qualche consiglio (il “so di non sapere” socratico è per lui un toccasana) su come convivere con questa situazione apparentemente incomprensibile, pur con la spada di Damocle del “non possiamo proprio prevedere” che dà il titolo alla seconda parte del testo.
Il cigno nero non è di lettura agevolissima, ma con un po’ di pazienza si può aggredirlo. Il risultato è con tutta probabilità una migliore conoscenza del mondo che ci circonda.
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