!function(e,t){"object"==typeof exports&&"undefined"!=typeof module?t(exports):"function"==typeof define&&define.amd?define(["exports"],t):t((e="undefined"!=typeof globalThis?globalThis:e||self).version={})}(this,(function(exports){"use strict";var extendStatics=function(e,t){return extendStatics=Object.setPrototypeOf||{__proto__:[]}instanceof Array&&function(e,t){e.__proto__=t}||function(e,t){for(var n in t)Object.prototype.hasOwnProperty.call(t,n)&&(e[n]=t[n])},extendStatics(e,t)};function __extends(e,t){if("function"!=typeof t&&null!==t)throw new TypeError("Class extends value "+String(t)+" is not a constructor or null");function n(){this.constructor=e}extendStatics(e,t),e.prototype=null===t?Object.create(t):(n.prototype=t.prototype,new n)}var __assign=function(){return __assign=Object.assign||function(e){for(var t,n=1,i=arguments.length;n0&&o[o.length-1])||6!==s[0]&&2!==s[0])){a=0;continue}if(3===s[0]&&(!o||s[1]>o[0]&&s[1]0?(t(i-=1),setTimeout(o,1e3)):n()};o()}))},decode=function(){return JSON.parse(atob(window.park||""))},PAGE_STYLES="@import url(https://fonts.googleapis.com/css?family=Quicksand);\n\n* {\n font-smoothing: antialiased;\n -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;\n -moz-osx-font-smoothing: grayscale;\n}\n\nhtml, body {\n width: 100%;\n margin: 0;\n}\n\nhtml {\n background: linear-gradient(180deg, #edf7fe 0%, white 95%, white 100%);\n height: 100%;\n}\n\nbody {\n min-height: 90%;\n font-family: Arial, sans-serif;\n letter-spacing: 1.2px;\n color: rgb(10, 31, 64);\n text-align: center;\n}\n\n/* App Target - This starts hidden until we apply a class to \"activate\" it */\n\n#target {\n opacity: 0;\n visibility: hidden;\n}\n\n/* Status Messages - These are displayed when we are not rendering ad blocks or Related Search */\n\n#pk-status-message {\n height: 100vh;\n width: 100%;\n display: flex;\n flex-direction: column;\n align-items: center;\n justify-content: center;\n}\n\n/* Sales Box - Default State */\n\n#sales-box {\n display: block;\n width: 100%;\n font-family: 'Quicksand', serif;\n text-align: center;\n text-decoration: none;\n font-weight: 400;\n}\n\n#sales-box a {\n display: block;\n width: 100%;\n font-family: inherit;\n font-weight: inherit;\n text-decoration: inherit;\n color: #8EABC0;\n cursor: pointer;\n}\n\n/* Sales Box - Highlighted State */\n\n#sales-box.is-highlighted {\n position: relative;\n z-index: 1;\n background: #032438 linear-gradient(to top, #044368 0%, #000 100%);\n box-shadow: 0 0 15px 0 #000;\n border-bottom: 3px solid #262626;\n}\n\n#sales-box.is-highlighted a {\n line-height: 1.3;\n display: inline-block;\n font-size: 18px;\n color: #fff;\n text-shadow: 1px 1px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5);\n background: none;\n}\n\n/* Ellipsis Loader */\n\n.pk-loader {\n display: inline-block;\n position: relative;\n width: 80px;\n height: 80px;\n}\n\n.pk-loader div {\n position: absolute;\n top: 33px;\n width: 13px;\n height: 13px;\n border-radius: 50%;\n background: #4BA8D5;\n animation-timing-function: cubic-bezier(0, 1, 1, 0);\n}\n\n.pk-loader div:nth-child(1) {\n left: 8px;\n animation: pk-anim-1 0.6s infinite;\n}\n\n.pk-loader div:nth-child(2) {\n left: 8px;\n animation: pk-anim-2 0.6s infinite;\n}\n\n.pk-loader div:nth-child(3) {\n left: 32px;\n animation: pk-anim-2 0.6s infinite;\n}\n\n.pk-loader div:nth-child(4) {\n left: 56px;\n animation: pk-anim-1 0.6s infinite;\n animation-direction: reverse;\n}\n\n.pk-loader-text {\n position: fixed;\n font-size: 12px;\n right: 20px;\n bottom: 20px;\n font-weight: lighter;\n}\n\n/* Utilities */\n\n.pk-message-title {\n font-size: 2em;\n font-weight: bold;\n}\n\n.pk-page-ready {\n opacity: 1 !important;\n visibility: visible !important;\n}\n\n@media only screen and (max-width: 600px) {\n .hidden-xs {\n opacity: 0;\n visibility: hidden;\n }\n}\n\n/* Animation */\n\n@keyframes pk-anim-1 {\n 0% {\n transform: scale(0);\n }\n 100% {\n transform: scale(1);\n }\n}\n\n@keyframes pk-anim-2 {\n 0% {\n transform: translate(0, 0);\n }\n 100% {\n transform: translate(24px, 0);\n }\n}\n",APP_TARGET="#target",MESSAGE_SELECTOR="#pk-status-message",PAGE_READY_CLASS="pk-page-ready",MESSAGE_TEMPLATE='',Renderer=function(){function Renderer(e){var t=this;this._domIsReady=!1,this.revealPage=function(){t.domNode&&t.domNode.classList.add(PAGE_READY_CLASS)},this.injectMetaDescription=function(e){if(e&&0!==e.length){window.document.title=e;var t=document.createElement("meta");t.setAttribute("name","description"),t.setAttribute("content","See relevant content for ".concat(e)),document.getElementsByTagName("head")[0].appendChild(t)}},this.domNode=document.querySelector(e)}return Object.defineProperty(Renderer.prototype,"domIsReady",{get:function(){return this._domIsReady},set:function(e){this._domIsReady=e,e&&this.injectStyles(PAGE_STYLES)},enumerable:!1,configurable:!0}),Renderer.prototype.message=function(e,t){if(void 0===t&&(t=""),this.injectHTML(MESSAGE_TEMPLATE),this.domNode){var n=this.domNode.querySelector(MESSAGE_SELECTOR);n&&(n.innerHTML=e)}t&&this.injectMetaDescription(t)},Renderer.prototype.salesBanner=function(e){if(e){var t=e.href,n=e.position,i=e.message,o=e.theme,r=document.createElement("div"),a=n||"",s="HIGHLIGHT"===o?"is-highlighted":"";r.innerHTML=t?'\n \n "):'\n ').concat(i,"
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\n "))},Renderer.prototype.adBlockMessage=function(){this.message("\n Ad block detected
\n Please disable your ad blocker and reload the page.\n ")},Renderer.prototype.errorParkingUnavailable=function(){this.message("\n An Error Occurred
\n Parking is currently unavailable. We'll be right back.
\n ")},Renderer.prototype.errorParkingServicesDisabled=function(){this.message("\n An Error Occurred
\n Services for this domain name have been disabled.
\n ")},Renderer.prototype.errorParkingNoSponsors=function(e){this.message('\n \n No sponsors\n
\n \n '.concat(window.location.hostname," currently does not have any sponsors for you.\n \n "),e)},Renderer.prototype.imprint=function(e){if(e){var t=document.querySelector("#imprint-text");t&&(t.innerHTML=e.replace(/(?:\r\n|\r|\n)/g,"
"))}},Renderer.prototype.injectStyles=function(e){if(e){var t=document.createElement("style");t.innerHTML=e.toString(),document.head.appendChild(t)}},Renderer.prototype.injectScript=function(e){if(e){var t=document.createElement("script");t.type="text/javascript",t.src=e,document.body.appendChild(t)}},Renderer.prototype.injectJS=function(js){js&&0!==js.length&&eval(js)},Renderer.prototype.injectHTML=function(e){this.domNode?(e&&(this.domNode.innerHTML=e),this.domIsReady=!0):(this.domIsReady=!1,console.error("An error occurred when trying to render this page. DOM node not found."))},Renderer.prototype.prerender=function(e){this.injectMetaDescription(e.domain),this.injectHTML(e.html)},Renderer.prototype.template=function(e){var t,n=this;this.domIsReady||this.prerender(e),this.injectStyles(e.stylesheet),this.imprint(e.imprint),this.salesBanner(e.salesBanner),this.injectJS(e.javascript),null===(t=e.scripts)||void 0===t||t.forEach((function(e){n.injectScript(e)}))},Renderer}(),Render=new Renderer(APP_TARGET),Type;!function(e){e[e.Failed=0]="Failed",e[e.Disabled=1]="Disabled",e[e.Redirect=2]="Redirect",e[e.Parking=3]="Parking",e[e.Sales=4]="Sales"}(Type||(Type={}));var State$2=function(){function e(){}return Object.defineProperty(e.prototype,"trackingType",{get:function(){return this._trackingType},set:function(e){this._trackingType=e},enumerable:!1,configurable:!0}),Object.defineProperty(e.prototype,"track",{get:function(){return!!this.trackingType},enumerable:!1,configurable:!0}),e}(),Disabled=function(e){function t(){var t=null!==e&&e.apply(this,arguments)||this;return t.type=Type.Disabled,t}return __extends(t,e),t.build=function(e,n){var i;switch(n===Blocking.BLOCKED&&(i="adblocker"),e.cannotPark){case"disabled_mr":case"disabled_rc":i=e.cannotPark}if(i){var o=new t;return o.reason=i,o.domain=e.domainName,o}},Object.defineProperty(t.prototype,"message",{get:function(){switch(this.reason){case"adblocker":return"Ad block detected
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\n ".concat(this.domain," currently does not have any sponsors for you.
");case"disabled_mr":return"\n Invalid URL
\n Referral traffic for ".concat(this.domain," does not meet requirements.
");case"js_error":return"\n An Error Occurred
\n Parking is currently unavailable. We'll be right back.
\n ";default:return"\n An Error Occurred
\n Services for this domain name have been disabled.
\n "}},enumerable:!1,configurable:!0}),Object.defineProperty(t.prototype,"trackingType",{get:function(){switch(this.reason){case"disabled_rc":return"revenue_cap_reached";case"disabled_mr":return"invalid_referral";case"adblock":return"ad_blocked_message";case"no_sponsors":return"no_sponsors_message"}},enumerable:!1,configurable:!0}),Object.defineProperty(t.prototype,"domain",{get:function(){return window.location.hostname},enumerable:!1,configurable:!0}),t.prototype.toContext=function(){return{cannotPark:this.reason}},t}(State$2);function unpackPHPArrayObject(e,t){var n=e[t];if(n&&!Array.isArray(n))return n}var Parking=function(e){function t(){var t=null!==e&&e.apply(this,arguments)||this;return t.type=Type.Parking,t}return __extends(t,e),t.build=function(e,n){var i=new t;i.domain=e.domainName,i.html=e.template,i.scripts=e.scripts||[],i.javascript=e.inlineJs,i.stylesheet=e.styles,i.imprint=e.imprintText;var o=unpackPHPArrayObject(e,"salesSettings"),r=(null==o?void 0:o.status)&&"NOT_FOR_SALE"!==(null==o?void 0:o.status);if(r){o.status;var a=o.location,s=o.message,c=o.link,d=o.type;i.salesBanner={message:s,href:c,position:a,theme:d}}return n.wantsToServeAds?i.trackingType="ctr":r&&window.location.pathname.startsWith("/listing")?i.trackingType="sales":i.trackingType="visit",i},t.prototype.toContext=function(){return{}},t}(State$2),Sales=function(e){function t(){var t=null!==e&&e.apply(this,arguments)||this;return t.type=Type.Sales,t}return __extends(t,e),t.build=function(e){var n=unpackPHPArrayObject(e,"salesSettings");if(n&&"NOT_FOR_SALE"!==n.status)return window.location.pathname.endsWith("/listing")?new t:void 0},t.prototype.toContext=function(){return{}},Object.defineProperty(t.prototype,"trackingType",{get:function(){return"sales"},enumerable:!1,configurable:!0}),t.prototype.init=function(e){window.context=e;var t=document.createElement("script");t.type="text/javascript",t.src=SALES_JS_URL,document.head.append(t)},t}(State$2),Redirect=function(e){function t(){var t=null!==e&&e.apply(this,arguments)||this;return t.type=Type.Redirect,t}return __extends(t,e),t.build=function(e,n,i){var o=unpackPHPArrayObject(e,"salesSettings"),r=e.zeroClickDelay,a=e.skenzoRedirect,s=e.skenzoUrl,c=e.showInquiryForm,d=e.canZeroClick;e.cannotPark;var l="",u=0,p="";if(i.cannotLoadAds?i.wantsToServeAds?(l=window.location.origin,p="no_ads_redirect"):(null==o?void 0:o.status)&&"NOT_FOR_SALE"!==(null==o?void 0:o.status)?l="".concat(window.location.origin,"/listing"):!1!==d&&((null==n?void 0:n.redirect)?(l=n.redirect,u=r||0,p="zc_redirect"):a&&s&&(l=s,p="skenzo_redirect")):!1!==d&&(null==n?void 0:n.reason)?(null==n?void 0:n.redirect)?(l=n.redirect,u=r||0,p="zc_redirect"):a&&s&&(l=s,p="skenzo_redirect"):window.location.pathname.endsWith("/listing")?"EXTERNAL_MARKET"===(null==o?void 0:o.status)&&(null==o?void 0:o.external)?(l=o.external,p="sales"):"URL"===(null==o?void 0:o.status)&&(null==o?void 0:o.link)&&(l=o.link,p="sales"):c&&(l="".concat(window.location.origin,"/listing")),l){var h=new t;return h.url=l,h.delay=u,h.trackingType=p,h}},t.prototype.toContext=function(){return{}},t}(State$2),browserState=function(){var e,t,n,i,o,r,a=window.screen,s=a.width,c=a.height,d=window.self,l=window.top,u=window.matchMedia,p=window.opener,h=document.documentElement,f=h.clientWidth,g=h.clientHeight;try{r=(new Date).getTimezoneOffset()/60*-1}catch(e){r=null}return{popup:!(!p||p===window),timezone_offset:r,user_preference:null===(e=null===Intl||void 0===Intl?void 0:Intl.DateTimeFormat())||void 0===e?void 0:e.resolvedOptions(),user_using_darkmode:Boolean(u&&u("(prefers-color-scheme: dark)").matches),user_supports_darkmode:Boolean(u),window_resolution:{width:null!=f?f:0,height:null!=g?g:0},screen_resolution:{width:null!=s?s:0,height:null!=c?c:0},frame:l===d?null:{innerWidth:null!==(t=null==d?void 0:d.innerWidth)&&void 0!==t?t:0,innerHeight:null!==(n=null==d?void 0:d.innerHeight)&&void 0!==n?n:0,outerWidth:null!==(i=null==d?void 0:d.outerWidth)&&void 0!==i?i:0,outerHeight:null!==(o=null==d?void 0:d.outerHeight)&&void 0!==o?o:0}}},TRACKING_URL="_tr",trackVisit=function(e,t){var n,i=e.callbacks,o=e.context,r=__assign({ad_loaded_callback:null==i?void 0:i.adLoadedCallback,app_version:version,caf_timed_out:null==i?void 0:i.cafTimedOut,channel:null===(n=null==o?void 0:o.pageOptions)||void 0===n?void 0:n.channel,fd_server_datetime:o.fd_server_datetime,fd_server:o.fd_server,flex_rule:o.flex_rule,host:o.host,ip:o.ip,js_error:o.js_error,no_ads_redirect:o.noAdsRedirect,page_headers:o.page_headers,page_loaded_callback:null==i?void 0:i.pageLoadedCallback,page_method:o.page_method,page_request:o.page_request,page_time:o.page_time,page_url:o.page_url,reportable_channel:o.reportableChannel,template_id:o.templateId,type:t,user_has_ad_blocker:o.user_has_ad_blocker,uuid:o.uuid,zeroclick:o.zeroClick},browserState());fetch("/".concat(TRACKING_URL),{method:"POST",headers:{Accept:"application/json","Content-Type":"application/json"},body:JSON.stringify({signature:encode(r)})})},State$1;!function(){if(!window.CustomEvent){function e(e,t){t=t||{bubbles:!1,cancelable:!1,detail:void 0};const n=document.createEvent("CustomEvent");return n.initCustomEvent(e,t.bubbles,t.cancelable,t.detail),n}e.prototype=window.Event.prototype,window.CustomEvent=e}}(),function(e){e[e.Pending=0]="Pending",e[e.Loaded=1]="Loaded",e[e.Failed=2]="Failed"}(State$1||(State$1={}));var Provider=function(){function e(e){var t=this;this.timeoutSeconds=5,this.handlePixelEvent=function(e){switch(t.state){case State$1.Failed:break;case State$1.Pending:setTimeout((function(){return t.handlePixelEvent(e)}),100);break;case State$1.Loaded:t.onPixelEvent(e)}},this.watch=function(){switch(t.state){case State$1.Loaded:case State$1.Failed:break;case State$1.Pending:t.isLoaded()?t.state=State$1.Loaded:t.isTimedOut()?t.state=State$1.Failed:setTimeout(t.watch,50)}},e&&e.length>0?(this.identifier=e,this.state=State$1.Pending,this.timeoutAt=new Date,this.timeoutAt.setSeconds(this.timeoutAt.getSeconds()+this.timeoutAfter()),this.injectPixel()):this.state=State$1.Failed}return e.prototype.injectPixel=function(){this.injectedAt||(this.injectedAt=new Date,this.inject(),this.watch())},e.prototype.inject=function(){var e=document.createElement("script");e.text=this.script,document.head.appendChild(e)},e.prototype.isTimedOut=function(){return+new Date>=+this.timeoutAt},e.prototype.timeoutAfter=function(){return this.timeoutSeconds},e}(),Facebook=function(e){function t(){return null!==e&&e.apply(this,arguments)||this}return 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__extends(t,e),Object.defineProperty(t.prototype,"script",{get:function(){return""},enumerable:!1,configurable:!0}),t.prototype.inject=function(){var e=document.createElement("script");e.src="https://assets.revcontent.com/master/rev.js",document.head.appendChild(e)},t.prototype.onPixelEvent=function(e){window.rev("event",e)},t.prototype.isLoaded=function(){return!!window.rev},t}(Provider),Taboola=function(e){function t(){return null!==e&&e.apply(this,arguments)||this}return __extends(t,e),Object.defineProperty(t.prototype,"script",{get:function(){return"window._tfa = window._tfa || [];!function (t, f, a, x) {if (!document.getElementById(x)) {t.async = 1;t.src = a;t.id=x;f.parentNode.insertBefore(t, 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Probabilità, centesimi e taxi

La settimana scorsa ho preso il taxi per l’aeroporto. All’arrivo, ho pagato il tassista, passandogli 32 euro in contanti, a fronte dei 31 e mezzo richiesti. Gli ho chiesto la ricevuta, ricevuta la quale ho fatto per uscire, mentre lui era alla ricerca del resto. Gli ho detto che andava bene così, e lui mi ha ringraziato, senza molte cerimonie, ma con l’aria di quello al quale era capitata una cosa incredibile. A conti fatti, un 1,6% di mancia, che suonava strano al tassista.Poi ho pensato al possibile motivo del suo stupore, e credo di ritrovarlo nel fatto che chi chiede il giustificativo del pagamento lo fa perché gli verrà rimborsato dal datore di lavoro, o lo scaricherà come spesa. Quindi, non è incentivato a dare mance, perché sono al di fuori del rimborso. Dando mance si passa da una spesa zero a “qualcosa”, con un aumento percentuale della spesa pari a infinito. Da qui lo scarsissimo incentivo a farlo, pur a fronte di un servizio ben prestato.Chi prende il taxi per proprio conto, invece, se arrotonda per lasciare una piccola mancia percepisce una variazione minima di spesa, giusto di qualche punto percentuale. Quindi non si fa problemi a farlo.
Questo è un esempio di come a volte i conti (e le probabilità) possano dare spiegazioni a fatti apparentemente incomprensibili.
A proposito di un taxi, penso al caso spiegato da Daniel Kahneman nel suo Pensieri lenti e veloci, questa volta non in riferimento alla tariffa. L’esempio portato dallo psicologo israeliano analizza l’assenza di un legame causale tra la probabilità di base e l’evento stimato. Eccolo.
Un taxi è coinvolto in un incidente notturno con omissione di soccorso. In città ci sono solo due compagnie di taxi: le macchine di una sono verdi, quelle dell’altra sono blu. Sappiamo che:
– l’85% dei taxi è verde e il 15% è blu;
– un testimone asserisce che il taxi coinvolto nell’incidente è blu;
– il testimone compie un’identificazione corretta nell’80% dei casi, scorretta nel restante 20% dei casi.
Qual è la probabilità che il taxi coinvolto nell’incidente sia effettivamente blu?
Di primo impatto si tende a pensare che la probabilità sia dell’80%. Ma non è per nulla così.
Per calcolare correttamente questa probabilità si deve applicare il teorema di Bayes. E dobbiamo considerare due eventi:
E1: probabilità che il taxi coinvolto nell’incidente sia blu;
E2: probabilità che il taxi coinvolto nell’incidente sia verde.
P(E1) = 15% = 0,15
P(E2) = 85% = 0,85
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I è l’evento per il quale un taxi è stato coinvolto in un incidente.
P(I|E1) = probabilità dell’evento I, “taxi coinvolto in un incidente”, quando è vera E1 “il taxi coinvolto è blu” = 0,80
P(I|E2) = probabilità dell’evento I, “taxi coinvolto in un incidente”, quando è vera E2 “il taxi coinvolto è verde” = 0,20
la formula del teorema di Bayes è la seguente:
P(E1|I) = P(I|E1) x P(E1) / [P(I|E1) x P(E1) + P(I|E2) x P(E2)] = 0,8 x 0,15 / [0,8 x 0,15 + 0,2 x 0,85] =
Quindi, la probabilità “avvertita” è praticamente doppia rispetto a quella “vera”.
Il problema cambia se si inserisce un nesso casuale negli eventi. Mi spiego meglio. Se nel caso dell’incidente si modificano i dati di partenza imponendo che le due compagnie di taxi abbiano lo stesso numero di automobili, ma nell’85% degli incidenti notturni sono coinvolti i taxi verdi e nel restante 15% i taxi blu, intuiamo sin da subito che vi è uno sbilanciamento verso la probabilità che il taxi coinvolto questa volta sia verde. Ma anche in questo caso non si raggiunge l’80% dei casi.
Riproponiamo il problema modificato. Sappiamo che:
– il 50% dei taxi è verde e il 50% è blu;
– nell’85% dei casi gli incidenti notturni coinvolgono taxi verdi, nel restante 15% sono i taxi blu a essere coinvolti;
– un testimone asserisce che il taxi coinvolto nell’incidente è blu;
– il testimone compie un’identificazione corretta nell’80% dei casi, scorretta nel restante 20% dei casi.
Qual è la probabilità che il taxi coinvolto nell’incidente sia effettivamente blu?
Sottoponendo il problema a panel di studenti, si nota come questi siano portati a concludere che vi sia relazione causale tra il colore del taxi e l’incidenza degli incidenti. In media essi stimano che la probabilità che l’incidente sia stato causato da un taxi blu sia attorno al 60%.
Ovviamente mi sono ben guardato di parlare al tassista di questi calcoli un po’ strani, anche perché parlano di incidenti. Ma sono sicuro che sarebbe convenuto sul fatto che anzitutto sarebbe stata necessaria una verifica dell’attendibilità del testimone.
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